The Signal Most People Miss: Building Permits
When people talk about the housing market, the conversation usually centers on prices or interest rates. But one of the most important indicators comes much earlier in the cycle: building permits.
According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), building permits are one of the strongest leading indicators of future housing supply. They come before construction begins, meaning they offer an early look at where inventory may be headed.
The key takeaway from their latest analysis:
Permit activity is showing renewed momentum in early 2026, particularly in multi-unit housing.
Source:
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2026/canadas-construction-pulse-permits-lead-starts-confirm
What CMHC Is Seeing Across Canada
At a national level, CMHC highlights three important realities:
- Building permits are increasing, especially for multi-unit residential projects
- There is still a gap between permits and actual construction starts
- Economic factors like financing, labour, and uncertainty continue to delay or stall projects
In other words, approvals are happening, but not every project is moving forward right away.
Windsor-Essex: A Region in Motion
Here in Windsor-Essex, these national trends are showing up in a very real way.
We are seeing elevated activity across multiple areas:
- Expansion in multi-unit residential development
- Continued infrastructure investment
- Major industrial growth, including the NextStar Energy EV battery plant
- Plans of subdivision around the County ready for future growth needs
This level of investment matters. Large-scale projects like this don’t just create jobs, they increase long-term housing demand and put pressure on local supply.
Policy Changes Aimed at Speeding Things Up
Municipalities are aware of the need to accelerate housing supply, and we are starting to see movement on that front.
The City of Windsor is currently:
- Exploring potential development charge relief for multi-unit housing projects that receive permits in 2026
- Continuing its transition toward digital permitting systems to streamline approvals
It’s important to be clear:
These development charge changes are not finalized policy. They are under review and subject to council approval.
Across Essex County, some municipalities have introduced or extended temporary development charge reductions or exemptions to encourage residential construction, particularly through 2026 and 2027. However, these measures can vary by municipality and are not universally identical across the region.
The Reality: Permits Don’t Equal Homes Yet
This brings us back to CMHC’s core point.
Even with:
- More permits being issued
- Municipal incentives being explored
- Strong long-term demand drivers
There is still a delay between:
Approval → Construction → Completed housing
In practical terms for Windsor-Essex:
- New housing supply may take 12 to 24 months or longer to reach the market
- Today’s resale inventory is still doing most of the work
Where the HST Rebate Fits In
Another important piece of the puzzle, especially in Ontario, is the HST rebate on new construction.
The rebate is designed to:
- Reduce the upfront tax burden on buyers
- Improve affordability for newly built homes
- Support demand for pre-construction and new builds
In a market like Windsor-Essex, where affordability is a major factor, this matters more than people think.
Why It Matters Right Now
- It Helps New Builds Compete with Resale
Without the rebate, new construction can feel significantly more expensive. The rebate helps narrow that gap and keeps new homes within reach for more buyers. - It Influences Whether Projects Move Forward
Builders need buyers. Buyers need affordability.
If rebate structures are unclear or misunderstood, buyers hesitate, and projects can stall even after permits are approved. - It Affects Deal Structure and Financing
We are seeing more conversations around:
- Whether HST is included in the purchase price
- Assignment of rebates
- How buyers manage financing while waiting for the rebate
These details directly impact whether deals hold together. We always recommend that you have your solicitor review the terms and conditions of the Builder’s purchase agreement and discuss all HST scenarios and implications as they apply to your unique circumstances.
What This Means for Buyers
This market is offering something we haven’t seen in a while.
- More inventory compared to recent years
- Less competition than peak market conditions
- More time to make decisions
At the same time:
- The best homes are still moving quickly
- Buyers remain selective and price-conscious
This is not an oversupplied market. It is a more balanced and thoughtful one.
What This Means for Sellers
Buyers are paying attention to future supply.
They know:
- More housing is coming
- They have options
That’s why we are seeing:
- Longer days on market for overpriced homes
- Strong activity for well-positioned properties
- A clear divide between homes that sell and those that sit
Pricing and presentation are doing the heavy lifting.
The Bigger Picture
What we are seeing is not a downturn. It is a transition.
- Nationally, permits are rising
- Locally, development is gaining momentum
- Policy changes are being explored to accelerate supply
- Affordability tools like the HST rebate are supporting demand
But none of this happens overnight.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are more homes being built in Windsor-Essex right now?
There is increased planning and permit activity, but not all approved projects are moving forward immediately.
Are development charges being waived in Windsor?
Not yet. The City of Windsor is reviewing options, but no final policy has been approved.
Are there development charge incentives in Essex County?
Some municipalities have introduced temporary reductions or exemptions, but these vary by location and are not uniform across the region.
Will new construction lower home prices?
It may help stabilize prices over time, but supply, demand, and affordability will continue to influence pricing.
How long does it take from permit to completed home?
Typically 12–24 months or longer depending on the project and market conditions.
Related Reading
A Local Perspective You Can Rely On
At The Dan Gemus Real Estate Team Ltd., Brokerage, we focus on understanding how national trends actually play out here in Windsor and Essex County. Construction timelines, policy changes, and buyer behaviour all move at different speeds locally, and interpreting that correctly is what allows us to give clear, practical advice.
Whether you’re planning your next move or simply trying to make sense of the market, our role is to help you see what’s really happening so you can make confident, informed decisions.