Why Some Windsor-Essex Homes Still Spark Bidding Wars (Even in a Balanced Market)

Are bidding wars still a thing in Windsor-Essex?

Yes, but not the way people assume.

The Windsor and Essex County market can be balanced overall and still have pockets where homes sell fast, attract multiple offers, and sometimes go over asking. That “contradiction” is usually the result of uneven supply across neighbourhoods, property types, and price bands, plus affordability squeezing more buyers into the same segment of the market.

What the newest stats say (released this month)

The latest Windsor-Essex monthly release (CREA: December 2025 results) shows:

303 homes sold
518 new listings
1,448 active listings
4.8 months of inventory
MLS HPI benchmark composite: $573,000
Average sale price: $520,098

That 4.8 months of inventory supports the idea of an overall balanced, even mildly buyer-leaning environment.

And yet, bidding wars still happen. Here’s why.

Balanced does not mean evenly balanced

Think of Windsor-Essex like a mall food court.

Even if there are plenty of restaurants overall (active listings), the line can still be out the door at the one place everyone wants (a specific neighbourhood, layout, or price band). A “balanced market” is a regional temperature. Your actual experience depends on your micro market.

A key clue is how different property types behave:

Single detached: 4.2 months of inventory (Q4 2025)
Condo/Apartment units: 10.6 months of inventory (Q4 2025)

So it’s completely normal for freehold homes in certain pockets to feel competitive while condos feel slower and more negotiable.

Why “over asking” still happens in a balanced market

Selling over asking is not a market condition by itself. It is often the byproduct of one of these scenarios:

1) Under-supplied pockets

Some neighbourhoods or submarkets simply do not have enough listings at the moment buyers are shopping.

2) Affordability funnels buyers into the same range

As payments get tighter, buyers cluster into the most “doable” price bands, which concentrates demand.

3) Turnkey, low-friction homes get chased

Homes that feel easy to say yes to (clean, maintained, well laid out, good location, realistic price) can still trigger competition even when buyers have more choice overall.

4) Intentional pricing strategy

“Over asking” can happen because a home was priced to spark urgency, not necessarily because prices are universally rising.

Where bidding wars usually live (and where they usually don’t)

Most common bidding war zone

Entry-level and mid-market homes where the buyer pool is deepest
Family-friendly areas with limited turnover
Move-in ready homes that require minimal work

Where bidding wars are usually not the norm

Above mid-market, where fewer buyers qualify or want that payment
Properties with complexity: rural quirks, unique layouts, higher maintenance, major updates needed
Listings priced aggressively with no compelling reason

In other words: multiple offers are real, but they are not the default across the entire region.

Pricing strategies differ by lane

Sellers in Windsor-Essex generally succeed with one of two approaches, depending on the micro market:

Strategy A: Market-value pricing (calm and steady)

Designed to attract the right buyer and negotiate reasonably.
Best when competition is moderate and buyers have options.

Strategy B: Controlled competition (offer date and tight presentation)

Designed for homes that are likely to be highly desirable in an under-supplied pocket.
Works best when the listing is prepped well and the price is positioned to drive traffic.

What tends to backfire is “hope pricing”: listing high “just to see” and then chasing the market downward which can be difficult to correct without a modest adjustment.

First-time buyers: how to compete without losing your mind

If you are trying to break into the market, you’re often shopping in the exact segment where affordability concentrates demand. Here’s how to play it smart.

1) Stop using list price as your anchor

List price is a marketing number. Your anchor is:

comparable sales
current competing listings
the property’s days on market and buyer activity

2) Have a pre-written “competitive offer” template

Not for every home, but ready when the right one appears. It should include:

your max number (decided before emotions kick in)
your preferred conditions and shortest comfortable timelines
deposit amount and timing
a closing-date range you can live with

3) Win with certainty, not just price

In multiple offers, sellers often value:

clean terms
a strong deposit
a closing date that matches their needs
fewer moving parts

4) Use a contrarian search strategy

If everything you want has 30 showings, try:

homes that are slightly dated but structurally solid
homes that have been sitting on the market for a while
listings with weak photos but good fundamentals
homes that are priced fairly (not deliberately low) and open to negotiation

These are often the best value wins for first-time buyers because you are not paying a competition premium.

5) Protect your future self

First-time buyers are most vulnerable to stretching the payment too far. Decide your “monthly comfort number” first, then shop backward from there.

Downsizers: how to downsize without accidentally upgrading your stress

Downsizers can get hit twice: you might be selling in one lane and buying in another that has tighter supply, especially if you need a true one-floor layout.

1) Know what you’re downsizing into

If you want:

a ranch
main-floor bedroom and laundry
minimal stairs
low maintenance

Those can be competitive micro markets because supply is naturally limited.

2) Build a timing plan before you list

Downsizers often benefit from:

selling with a longer closing to shop calmly, or
buying with a longer closing and then listing immediately (only if finances allow)

Trying to “sync everything perfectly” is where stress spikes.

3) Consider the condo reality (if that’s your plan)

Condos can behave differently than freehold homes. Inventory conditions for apartment units in Windsor-Essex were notably higher than single detached in Q4 2025, which often translates into more negotiating room and longer timelines.
That can be good for you as a buyer, but it also means you should plan for choice and patience.

4) Don’t underestimate lifestyle costs

Downsizing is not always cheaper month to month once you account for:

condo fees
property taxes
insurance differences
parking and storage needs

A good plan looks at total monthly ownership costs, not just purchase price.

The takeaway

Windsor-Essex can be balanced overall and still produce bidding wars, because supply and demand are uneven across neighbourhoods, property types, and price points. Bidding wars still happen, but they are not the norm everywhere, especially once you move above the mid-market and the buyer pool thins.

Affordability is the accelerant. It concentrates buyers into the same lanes, and those lanes feel competitive even when the region as a whole has more listings, longer days on market, and more negotiation room.

A practical note about The Dan Gemus Real Estate Team

At The Dan Gemus Real Estate Team, we focus on translating the big-market headlines into what actually matters for your move: your neighbourhood, your price band, and your property type. That’s how first-time buyers avoid paying a competition premium unnecessarily, and how downsizers time their sale and purchase so they don’t turn a lifestyle upgrade into a timeline emergency. A calm move usually comes from a clear plan, not from reacting to the loudest stories.

If you need help putting together a plan, The Dan Gemus Real Estate Team will ensure that you understand the market, different options, the pros and the cons of different scenarios. We will help you construct a plan that fits your needs so you are confident to move forward, or wait things out (depending on your circumstances).

The Dan Gemus Real Estate Team serves and supports all of Windsor and Essex County with their real estate needs. Have a Question? We have answers.